Archive for August, 2008

How to Win More NHL Bets at Online Sportsbooks

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

Dan Ellis - Nashville Predators

Nashville’s Dan Ellis had the best save percentage last season. Who knew?

If it’s the middle of August, we must be talking hockey. NHL training camps start next month; so do preseason games, then the regular season opens in Prague and Stockholm on Oct. 4. This is your window of opportunity as a handicapper to get caught up with the league, its 30 teams and its hundreds of players.

Unless you’re a professional handicapper able to devote several hours a day to your craft, you probably won’t be able to study every single NHL player. But even a recreational bettor can make a profit on hockey – the lines are soft and prone to bigger swings because of the smaller marketplace. The trick is to manage your time and study efficiently.

Start by looking at the top goaltenders on each team. Advanced metrics are fairly new to the sport, but save percentage is a reliable rough guide for evaluating goaltender performance. Yes, that’s Dan Ellis in the top spot for 2007-08.

Betting on the Tampa Rays to Win the World Series

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

Those Tampa Bay Rays sure are persistent. Despite a low payroll, a young roster and tough competition in the American League East, the Rays are in strong contention for the playoffs at 71-46, four games ahead in the division race at press time. Tampa Bay looks like a steal at 7-1 odds to win the World Series, compared to 6-1 for the Boston Red Sox.

Hold the phone. The Rays have a new obstacle to overcome: Injuries to Evan Longoria (.885 OPS) and Carl Crawford (+17 FRAR) have left the team without two of its best players. Longoria should be back in September. Crawford, on the other hand, is looking at the possibility of season-ending surgery.

If Tampa Bay is going to go all the way, Gabe Gross will have to start cashing in some of that potential. Sure enough, Gross has risen to the occasion with a 1.050 OPS in the month of August. What’s next, Rocco Baldelli?

2008 WSOP Odds: Dennis Phillips vs. Ivan Demidov?

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

The final nine players have been decided in the main event of the WSOP. The top two stacks belong to Dennis Phillips with 26,295,000 chips, and Ivan Demidov with 24,400,000 chips. Both players are relatively inexperienced in major tournament play. Phillips has only cashed twice before, winning just over four grand in a couple of events at the 2007 Grand Casino Tunica Poker Tournament. Demidov also has only two cashes, just over $3500 at the Korona Russian Poker Championship, and a $39,000 cash out in event #44 at this year’s WSOP.

It’s hard to choose one over the other, as they seem to be closely matched. If I had to choose one I would go with the Russian. He seems to have more experience. But it will only take one bad beat to change the fate of one or both of these players.