Every year, the producers of American Idol say the upcoming season is going to be the best one ever. Last year’s produced Sanjaya, so this year can’t help but look good by comparison. Nonetheless, the ratings are down, and the performances are getting mixed reviews. FOX has even conducted market research into how to fix the show.

It’s still far and away the biggest show on television, so the entertainment futures market keeps bringing in the action. The show is down to its Final Four, and former favorite David Archuleta is down to 2-1 odds to win, losing some of his teenage-girl fan base to Jason Castro (25-1). Archuleta is a technically proficient singer with all the emotional power you would expect from a 17-year-old boy from Utah.

David Cook is the favorite at 1-2, making interesting choices with which versions of songs to perform – Cook’s version of the Michael Jackson standard “Billie Jean” was based on a cover version by Doxology. Maybe there is hope for America.

They’re down to the final seven at American Idol 7. As expected, David Archuleta is still in the competition. He’s the prohibitive favorite at 10-11; the only real contender is David Cook at 13-5.

Archuleta has done this kind of thing before, winning Star Search in 2003. Then again, Carly Smithson (10-1) and Kristy Lee Cook (25-1) had professional experience in the music biz before ending up on this showcase of so-called undiscovered talent. David Cook played with the Kansas City indie band Axium from 1999 until their breakup in 2006.

The kicker for the 17-year-old Archuleta is his giggling fan base. The “Arch Angels” are keeping their hero in the competition even after such unforgivable flubs as forgetting the words to “We Can Work It Out” by the Beatles. Richard Rushfield of the Los Angeles Times has his finger on the pulse: “(No) demographic can match the voting power of hysterically excited tween girls.”