Jeff Gordon is leading the Chase for NASCAR’s Nextel Cup with just four races left to go. He’s the overwhelming favorite at 1-4 to win the Cup for the fifth time in his career. A foregone conclusion, right?

Of course not. Teammate Jimmie Johnson (3-2) is just 53 points behind, and he took the checkered flag at last week’s Subway 500 – Gordon finished third. The win gives Johnson seven on the season, compared to six for Gordon. He could make it eight this Sunday at the Pep Boys Auto 500; the race takes place at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where Johnson won in March to record his fifth Top-3 result in eight appearances.

Fifteen points separate first and second in NASCAR, so if Johnson wins four straight, he wins the Cup. More likely, one poor showing by Gordon would make things even; he has four results outside the Top 10 in his last 10 races. It definitely could happen.