Now that we’re down to the Final Four at the men’s college basketball Tournament, betting on the futures market has to be handled a little differently – almost like handicapping a single game straight up.

Using this approach, the Memphis Tigers are the easy pick at 27-10. The Tigers are favored by two points over UCLA (63-20) in Saturday’s semifinal; since we’re picking straight up to go to the championship game, a 2-point spread is a fair indicator that Memphis has a better chance of advancing. That’s not always the way it happens, of course, but there is a correlation between the pointspread and who wins straight up.

The Tigers would then either face North Carolina (7-4) or Kansas (31-10) in the final. The Heels are 3-point faves in their semifinal, so let’s project them to advance. In a hypothetical Memphis-UNC matchup, Memphis is the easy pick because of the bigger payout in what looks like a toss-up.

I’m still fully convinced the UCLA Bruins are going to win March Madness. But at 3-1 odds? Not convinced enough.

There are better values among the 16 teams still left on the Tournament futures market. Wisconsin is 14-1; the Badgers are third in efficiency, behind the Bruins and ahead of Memphis (13-2). But Wisconsin’s odds (and value) shrunk when Davidson upset Georgetown to earn a Sweet 16 matchup with the Badgers.

Washington State, on the other hand, remains a healthy value pick at 35-1. The Cougars meet UNC (3-1) on Thursday; the Tar Heels are fifth in efficiency, but Washington State is right there in sixth. That suggests a closer contest than the odds do.

If you prefer even longer odds, Davidson (40-1) is certainly capable of beating the Badgers and moving on. With a singular weapon like Stephen Curry, anything is possible for the Wildcats. He’s like  Greek fire on the court.