The New York Giants weren’t supposed to beat Dallas. They weren’t supposed to beat Green Bay. And now they’re not supposed to beat the New England Patriots at Super Bowl XLII. The Pats were 11.5-point favorites at press time with a total of 54.

Everything on paper says the Patriots should win this game hands-down. The computer projections at Accuscore say New England has a 75-percent chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the fourth time in Tom Brady’s eight-year career. The pointspread itself is a giant neon sign telling you how great New England is.

But nothing will come easy Feb. 3. The Patriots have the upper hand; however, to win the Super Bowl, they have to endure the top-ranked pass rush in the league during the regular season. They also have to face the very real prospect of Eli Manning having yet another sound football game. It’s happened a lot lately.

The New York Giants are on a 7-1 ATS streak. The New England Patriots are 1-7 ATS. That makes Super Bowl XLII an easy pick, right?

Maybe more so at the open, when the Patriots were pegged as 12-point favorites. That spread was down to 11 at press time and could certainly drop further as money continues to pour in on the Giants. Even the most casual NFL bettors were glued to Big Blue’s performance against the Pats in Week 17; you couldn’t ask for a more obvious demonstration of what could happen at the Super Bowl.

But how far does the spread have to swing to make the Patriots the easy pick? Perhaps something in the single digits; AccuScore’s computer simulations have projected a 30-21 final with New England getting a 75-percent chance of finishing their perfect season. Those chances dip to 55 percent if Eli Manning doesn’t throw a pick – which he hasn’t yet in these playoffs.