The NFL, by virtue of being the most popular sport to gamble on in North America, can also be the toughest to handicap. Games are few and lines are tight. But there is still a solid advantage to be gained against the betting public.

Myths persist about football despite the relatively smart mainstream coverage and analysis the NFL enjoys. The casual fan continues to divide the sport into “skill” and “non-skill” positions, overvaluing the contributions of the running backs and the wide receivers compared to the offensive linemen and the safeties. Many football analysts in the public eye look more like casual fans than experts.

You can make a healthy profit on NFL games by taking this knowledge gap into consideration. Teams missing starting players on their offensive lines or in the secondary are stronger fade candidates; those missing big-name “skill” players are more attractive if they have competent, no-name back-ups.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 26th, 2007 at 4:06 pm and is filed under NFL, Football Betting. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.