Who Will Win American Idol?

April 16th, 2008

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They’re down to the final seven at American Idol 7. As expected, David Archuleta is still in the competition. He’s the prohibitive favorite at 10-11; the only real contender is David Cook at 13-5.

Archuleta has done this kind of thing before, winning Star Search in 2003. Then again, Carly Smithson (10-1) and Kristy Lee Cook (25-1) had professional experience in the music biz before ending up on this showcase of so-called undiscovered talent. David Cook played with the Kansas City indie band Axium from 1999 until their breakup in 2006.

The kicker for the 17-year-old Archuleta is his giggling fan base. The “Arch Angels” are keeping their hero in the competition even after such unforgivable flubs as forgetting the words to “We Can Work It Out” by the Beatles. Richard Rushfield of the Los Angeles Times has his finger on the pulse: “(No) demographic can match the voting power of hysterically excited tween girls.”

Odds to Win the 2008 World Series

April 9th, 2008

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Baseball will enjoy another week or so in the spotlight before the crushing weight of the NBA and NHL playoffs siphons off viewers. Meanwhile, the favorites on the World Series futures markets are getting their bats handed to them. The Boston Red Sox (9-2) were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays (25-1). The Detroit Tigers (15-2) started the season with seven straight losses.

Given the way everything is chaotic in the MLB standings these days, it may be difficult to see very far into the future. The Chicago White Sox (35-1) and Kansas City Royals (125-1) were atop the Central Division with five wins and two losses apiece. The New York Mets (6-1) dropped four of their first six games and lost Pedro Martinez for six weeks to a hamstring injury. New York’s fortunes should improve, but what about the White Sox and Royals for the World Series? You never know these days.

Your Casino Gambling Percentages

April 7th, 2008

Your Casino Gambling Percentages

Knowing the gambling percentages can help you decide on where the best place to lay down your money for your skill level should be. Casino advantages in the major games stack up this way:

Blackjack

0 to 1 percent for the basic strategy player

2 to 5 percent for the average player

Roulette

All bets are 2.26 percent but the five-number on 0,00,1,2, and 3 carry a 7.89 percent house edge

Craps

0.6 percent with pass/come with double odds

For the worst proposition bets it’s a t 16.67 percent

Baccarat/Mini Baccarat

1.17 percent if you bet on the banker

1.36 percent if you bet on the player

Slot Machines

This varies according to programming but the average is about 4 to 6 percent on $1 machine, 7 to 10 percent on 25 cent machines, and 10 to 13 percent on 5 cent machines

Video Poker Jacks or Better

0.5 percent with optimal play on a full-pay 9-6 machine

3.8 percent on a 7-5 machine

Memphis – Easy Pick for NCAA Tournament Championship

April 2nd, 2008

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Now that we’re down to the Final Four at the men’s college basketball Tournament, betting on the futures market has to be handled a little differently – almost like handicapping a single game straight up.

Using this approach, the Memphis Tigers are the easy pick at 27-10. The Tigers are favored by two points over UCLA (63-20) in Saturday’s semifinal; since we’re picking straight up to go to the championship game, a 2-point spread is a fair indicator that Memphis has a better chance of advancing. That’s not always the way it happens, of course, but there is a correlation between the pointspread and who wins straight up.

The Tigers would then either face North Carolina (7-4) or Kansas (31-10) in the final. The Heels are 3-point faves in their semifinal, so let’s project them to advance. In a hypothetical Memphis-UNC matchup, Memphis is the easy pick because of the bigger payout in what looks like a toss-up.

Betting on the NCAA Tournament: Best Odds to Win it All?

March 26th, 2008

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I’m still fully convinced the UCLA Bruins are going to win March Madness. But at 3-1 odds? Not convinced enough.

There are better values among the 16 teams still left on the Tournament futures market. Wisconsin is 14-1; the Badgers are third in efficiency, behind the Bruins and ahead of Memphis (13-2). But Wisconsin’s odds (and value) shrunk when Davidson upset Georgetown to earn a Sweet 16 matchup with the Badgers.

Washington State, on the other hand, remains a healthy value pick at 35-1. The Cougars meet UNC (3-1) on Thursday; the Tar Heels are fifth in efficiency, but Washington State is right there in sixth. That suggests a closer contest than the odds do.

If you prefer even longer odds, Davidson (40-1) is certainly capable of beating the Badgers and moving on. With a singular weapon like Stephen Curry, anything is possible for the Wildcats. He’s like  Greek fire on the court.

Betting on Angelina Jolie & Brad Pitt’s New Baby

March 19th, 2008

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You can’t go through the supermarket checkout line without bearing witness to the never-ending phenomenon that is Angelina Jolie’s baby bump. Inquiring minds want to know: Is Brangelina preggers? What will the child be named? What about twins?

The  celebrity props list is here to take your bets. Last month, People quoted a “source close to the couple” that claimed another child is on the way. As long as Jolie delivers by the end of the year, we’ve got action.

Unless someone out there has some inside information (literally), it’s all too easy to bet “No” on twins at –300. According to the Rush University Medical Center, 31 twin births occur per 1,000 women in the United States. You likewise might want to steer away from betting on triplets at 200-1; according to Hellin’s Law, you square the odds for each additional child in a multiple birth. That’s roughly one in a thousand for triplets.

Easy Chicks an Easy Bet at Vegas Casinos

March 12th, 2008

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You can’t count on many things in a casino. You can count on a long line at the buffet, that’s for sure. The only other thing you’ll always find in Vegas casinos that I can think of are easy chicks.

Now there are varying degrees of easy chicks. You have the professional who will introduce herself to you if you so much as look at her. There is the gold-digger type that looks good and only lurks around the high-stakes areas, looking for a fat cat who might be very generous.

Then there’s the wild and crazy office girl on vacation who wants to have an encounter for the weekend. This type can be anywhere in the casino, and usually has a gaggle of other hens with her, chugging sour apple martinis and dumping quarters into a machine. Whichever you prefer, there’s no shortage of any of them.

Online Sign-up Bonuses: Easy Money?

March 5th, 2008

They’re not quite giving away free money, but it’s close. Most sportsbooks offer tantalizing bonuses to new customers: free plays, bonus earnings (25 percent, for example) on the first play, doubling your initial deposit, and so on.

We certainly wouldn’t refuse an offer like that – provided we really want to do business with that book in the first place. If you sign up with a less than reputable book just to grab a quick bonus, you might not get any return at all, even if you win your bet.

You also have to win your bet to collect just about all the kinds of bonuses there are on the betting market; 25 percent of nothing is still nothing. Even if you win your bet and earn your bonus, the bookies figure they’ll make that back in vigorish every time you place a wager. As long as you’re playing, the book gets its vig.

Free Online Poker Easier than Real Cash Online Poker?

February 27th, 2008

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Free online poker is definitely easier to win at than real money games. I get a kick out of people who boast about how good they are because they won over $300,000 pretend dollars online. The action is easier to beat because the play is so loose. Most pots have five or six players still in the hand for the river card, so even the smallest amount of starting-hand selection strategy will give you an advantage over the game.

It’s loose because it doesn’t really matter to the players whether they win or lose. When the game has your money at stake, it takes on a whole new attitude. Your opponents care about how they play and they work hard at being good players. So to compete, you must try and improve your game as well. If you don’t, the real money games will be difficult for you to beat.

NBA Easy Bets of the Week

February 20th, 2008

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“It’s done,” says Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. The it being the Jason Kidd trade, which was reportedly approved by the league on Tuesday afternoon. That makes both the Mavericks and Kidd’s former employers, the New Jersey Nets, solid fade candidates for the next few days.

The Nets are hosting Chicago on Wednesday night, while Dallas is at New Orleans. There are three players leaving New Jersey and four active players (plus Keith Van Horn) coming off the Mavs roster. Both teams could be stuck with very short benches Wednesday, depending on how quickly players report and pass their physicals.

Then there’s the matter of these two clubs becoming acclimatized to their new players, and vice versa. Dallas looks like the better fade prospect after what may prove to be a downgrade from Devin Harris to Kidd. But the Nets are rumored to be shopping Vince Carter, which would create even more chaos in East Rutherford.