The New York Giants are on a 7-1 ATS streak. The New England Patriots are 1-7 ATS. That makes Super Bowl XLII an easy pick, right?

Maybe more so at the open, when the Patriots were pegged as 12-point favorites. That spread was down to 11 at press time and could certainly drop further as money continues to pour in on the Giants. Even the most casual NFL bettors were glued to Big Blue’s performance against the Pats in Week 17; you couldn’t ask for a more obvious demonstration of what could happen at the Super Bowl.

But how far does the spread have to swing to make the Patriots the easy pick? Perhaps something in the single digits; AccuScore’s computer simulations have projected a 30-21 final with New England getting a 75-percent chance of finishing their perfect season. Those chances dip to 55 percent if Eli Manning doesn’t throw a pick – which he hasn’t yet in these playoffs.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm and is filed under Super Bowl. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.